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Philosophy of the Social Sciences
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Article

Almost Pregnant: On Probabilism and Its Moral Uses in the Social Sciences

Göran Duus-Otterström*

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: G.Duus-Otterstrom{at}warwick.ac.uk.


   Abstract
The turn from deterministic to probabilistic explanations has been used to argue that social science does not explain human action in ways that are incompatible with free will, since, according to some accounts of probabilism, causal factors merely influence actions without determining them. I argue that the notion of nondetermining causal influence is a multifaceted and problematic idea, which notably is unclear about whether the probability is objective or subjective, whether it applies to individual occurrences or merely to sets of occurrences, and whether it is possible for an occurrence to be "almost determined."

First published on May 19, 2009
Philosophy of the Social Sciences 2009, doi:10.1177/0048393109335958


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